Claire Jones

RTRS: ECB STOPS MONETARY POLICY OPERATIONS TO SOME GREEK BANKS AS RECAPITALISATION NOT IN PLACE -CENBANK SOURCE

The Reuters headline above has sparked panic this afternoon. Is the panic warranted?

In some ways, yes. In some ways, no.

The Reuters story states that some Greek banks no longer meet the conditions required to access European Central Bank funds.

This is because Greek banks no longer have enough assets deemed to be of sufficient quality to secure cash from the ECB.

At a time when more and more deposits are leaving the Greek banking system, that hardly helps soothe market jitters.

However, Greek banks can still access euros through the Greek central bank.

How so?

Through something called emergency liquidity assistance, or ELA.

What’s the difference between ELA and accessing ECB cash?

For the banks, the terms of the loans. Under ELA, the Greek central bank, rather than the Eurosystem – which includes the ECB and the other national central banks, can set the collateral requirements.  This means that poorer quality assets could be accepted by the Greek central bank in exchange for euros.

For the central banks, the difference is that with ELA, the national central bank is on the hook for any losses. With ECB loans, any losses would be shared.

ELA is usually approved by the ECB’s governing council, made up of the heads of the national central banks and the ECB’s executive board. However, below a certain threshold, ELA does not require approval of the governing council and can be made at the discretion of the national central banks.

Greek banks have already been reliant on ELA for a while now.

So why is so much attention being paid to this now?

It appears that more financing of the Greek banking system is now being done through ELA than before.

However, this rise in usage of ELA may well prove temporary.

Why?

It seems that the reason for the rise in usage is because of the delay in their recapitalisation (Greek banks are due to get European Financial Stability Facility bonds in the coming days — more on which here in this excellent post by FT Alphaville’s Joseph Cotterill).

And the ECB will exchange EFSF bonds for cash through its regular open market operations.

So, once/ if this recapitalisation goes ahead, Greek banks will be able to return to the ECB for cash?

So long as they are then considered by the ECB to be solvent and they have enough assets that the Eurosystem is willing to exchange for cash, then yes.

 

Claire Jones

Sir Mervyn King. Image by Getty.

Sir Mervyn King. Image by Getty.

Hello and welcome to today’s live blog on the Bank of England’s Inflation Report press conference. The governor is due to begin speaking at 10.30am.

This post should update automatically every few minutes, although it might take longer on mobile devices. All times are UK time.

 

11.56 This live blog is now closed.

11.49 Here are the key takeaways:

  • Growth is lower, and inflation higher, in the short term, but “the big picture” on the UK economy remains the same. The governor acknowledged, however, that the UK’s productivity problems may be more persistent than previously thought, which is significant given that this would lessen the amount of growth the economy can tolerate without higher inflation.
  • More QE is a possibility given that the central forecasts show inflation edging below 2 per cent two years from now. It would appear that further asset purchases (and more liquidity) are pretty much a certainty if the eurozone crisis worsens.
  • The Bank is not too concerned about the recent appreciation of the pound. Not yet anyway.
  • The governor was unwilling to opine on fiscal policy. Which makes a change.

Claire Jones

Back in early 2009, around the time the Bank of England was first firing up the printing presses, one of the oft-stated aims of quantitative easing was for it to produce a sharp increase in broad money, which acts as a guide to the amount of bank lending in the economy.

Broad money growth of 6-8 per cent would have suited the Bank — and the UK economy — nicely. If only.

As the chart above shows, quantitative easing has failed to produce the sort of pick-up that the MPC had hoped for.

There are many reasons for this. One of which, according to former MPC member Charles Goodhart, is the Bank’s practice of paying interest on reserves held in their coffers.

Mr Goodhart today accused the authorities as having “connived” would-be lenders into keeping their cash on deposit at the central bank by paying interest of 0.5 per cent on banks’ reserves.

Mr Goodhart argued that this is discouraging banks from lending. After all, why bother to risk making a loss on a bad loan if you can earn interest by parking your cash at the central bank?

Claire Jones

The ballooning of central banks’ balance sheets in recent years has sparked fears of rampant inflation.

These fears stem from traditional monetary theory, which holds that an increase in central banks’ reserves will eventually lead to a rise in bank lending (and broad money), which in the end will lead to inflation.

This theory of the so-called “money multiplier” assumes monetary policy can influence broad money and inflation through central banks’ control of short-term interest rates and the monetary base of coins, paper money and central bank reserves.

But, as central banks’ largely failed attempts to control inflation through broad money in the 1970s and 1980s suggest, the money multiplier is too slippery to form the basis for policy rules.

Yet, despite its propensity to fluctuate, the money multiplier still matters. As IMF economist Manmohan Singh and his former colleague at the Fund, Peter Stella, say in a VoxEU note published last week, “its impact on how people think about monetary policy cannot be overstated”.

Ralph Atkins

Luc Coene, Belgium’s central bank governor, was outspoken on Greece in his interview with the Financial Times. He also revealed a little more on the use of emergency liquidity assistance across the eurozone.

ELA, provided by national central banks rather than the ECB, is meant to be used only in exceptional circumstances — and requires special approval by the ECB’s governing council. We know its use has been heavy in Greece and Ireland. But as I have noted before, there is still a considerably amount of unexplained ELA about.

Claire Jones

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BoE Inflation Report

Claire Jones

Seldom are statements of the obvious as significant as the Bundesbank’s comments yesterday that Germany might well have to tolerate higher inflation than the rest of the eurozone in the coming years.

Jens Weidmann often cites the EC Treaty’s prohibition of monetary financing as an argument against stepping up the European Central Bank’s purchases of government debt.  It would be hypocritical for the Bundesbank president to argue against what is also implicit in the legislation that governs the ECB: that the governing council sets monetary policy for the eurozone as a whole, not individual member states.

Above-target inflation is the natural result of Germany’s position as the bloc’s strongest economy at a time when the divergences between member states’ fortunes are becoming more and more pronounced.

Still, from a central bank more aware than most of the social and economic carnage that accompanies the debasement of currencies, the Bundesbank’s acceptance that higher inflation is a price that it must pay as part of its commitment to monetary union is to be welcomed.

For the first time in quite a while, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England has today made a knife-edge decision which genuinely might have gone either way. The outcome, which was to leave the total of quantitative easing unchanged at £325bn, tells us something about the inflation fighting credentials of the MPC, which have been widely questioned in the financial markets. And it also tells us something about the way in which other central banks, including the Fed, might react to similar, if less strained, economic circumstances in coming months.

The Bank of England has been on a mission in the past two years. That mission has been to participate, possibly a little too enthusiastically at times, in a plan to change the fiscal/monetary mix in the UK, and to support the Coalition’s plan to reduce the budget deficit on an accelerated timsescale. The MPC has therefore delivered the largest dose of monetary easing among the major economies, and has acquiesced to a prolonged period in which UK inflation has exceeded targets by very significant amounts. From my vantage point, while inflation and unemployment have both been far too high, there were few better policy options available at a time of enormous difficulty for both the Treasury and the Bank.

Claire Jones

Fears over inflation remaining stubbornly high have won out and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has today opted to stay put, rather than plump for more money printing.

Most had expected the decision, though a few had thought a combination of concerns over weak economic activity and sterling’s recent surge would force the MPC to act.

Here’s FT economics correspondent Norma Cohen’s take on the decision.

The minutes of the meeting will be published on Wednesday 23 May at 9.30am UK time.

 

Claire Jones

In the current climate, there is scant need for nations to be reminded of the risks presented by spiralling borrowing costs.

If markets doubt a nation’s ability to service its debt, then yields are ramped up to levels which governments cannot possibly afford without resorting to rampant money printing, which risks debasement of the currency.

As we are seeing in the eurozone at present, if the ability to create inflation lies beyond the control of the national authorities then the economic and social consequences of spiralling debt can be disastrous.

With this in mind, Yale professor Robert Shiller was invited to the Bank of England last week to present his idea for a far more sustainable way for sovereigns to manage their finances. Governments, he argued, should ditch bonds and instead issue equities with dividends linked to growth.

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The Money Supply team

Chris Giles Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS

Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief, has been writing about European economics and politics for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. He has been watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies since 2004. He has previously worked in London, Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS

Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS

Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS

James Politi is US economics and trade correspondent for the Financial Times, based in Washington DC. He joined the Washington bureau in January 2008 following four and a half years as US deals correspondent covering M&A and private equity. James Politi joined the FT in London in 2000 with an MSc at the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Florence. RSS

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